Who will win Kenya's 2027 Presidential Election?
Probability Timeline
VotePapaOutcomes
William Ruto
Fred Matiang'i
Kalonzo Musyoka
Rigathi Gachagua
David Maraga
Martha Karua- 1This market resolves to the candidate officially sworn in as President of Kenya by the Chief Justice following the 2027 general election, whether after the first round or a run-off
- 2If no candidate wins outright in the first round, a run-off between the top two candidates is held within 30 days under Article 138(5). The market resolves on whoever is sworn in following the run-off.
- 3If the Supreme Court nullifies the result under Article 140 and orders a fresh election, the market is paused and resolves on whoever is sworn in after the fresh election.
- 4The swearing-in ceremony is administered by the Chief Justice under Article 141 of the Constitution and is the single unambiguous resolution trigger for this market. The IEBC declaration alone does not trigger resolution — only the swearing-in does.
- 5This market resolves on the swearing-in only. Subsequent events after swearing-in — including impeachment, resignation, death, or any court challenge — do not affect resolution.
- 6If no swearing-in has occurred by the maximum resolution date, the market is voided and all positions are refunded in full
Settlement Fee: A 7.5% fee applies to profits when this market resolves in your favor. No fee is charged if you don't profit.
About this Market
Kenya's 2027 presidential election is scheduled for 10th August 2027 amid a dynamic political landscape featuring incumbent President William Ruto facing opposition challenges. Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has emerged as a key opposition figure calling for Ruto's defeat on August 10, 2027, while ODM factions debate candidates and former President Uhuru Kenyatta positions himself as a potential kingmaker. Early declared candidates and regional influences add complexity to the race.
Market Info
Category
🏛 Politics
Country
KEN
Market Type
multi
Volume
$254.77
Closes
Aug 9, 2027
Created
Mar 15, 2026
Resolution Source
Primary: The official swearing-in ceremony of the President of Kenya, administered by the Chief Justice,as broadcast live local TV stations (eg: KBC, KTN, NTV, Citizen TV.) and as confirmed by the President's Office at president.go.ke.